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A Letter to Investors; a case of sports betting

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Good morning my awesome readers. The journey of life is just another bet.
Do you agree? well, I will leave that to you, my awesome readers to decide.

The English Premier League and other major leagues have started and well into week 7. Major investment decisions were made by clubs and this has also affected the decision making by various stakeholders, including punters/investors. I occasionally place some bets on my favorites teams and this necessitated this write up after discussion with a friend. Are you making gains/losses from betting/investment? Take a moment to reflect on this.
Betting and investing in Equity/stock Market- Similar principles yet so different. Controversial? Well, let’s dive in.

Now the equity market is characterized by volatility, that is the prices of shares could go up and down on a regular; Same for betting, you can either lose or win big on a regular. The difference in here is that for equities, you don’t lose your total investment unless the company winds up- even so there’s a last resort where company assets may be sold and after everyone else has been settled, shareholders would be paid. Unfortunately for betting, when you lose,
there’s no remedy. Your money is gone.

Secondly, both are “long term” in nature. Equity investors would normally have a long term perspective. Same as betting, from my experiences and those shared, you lose over a period and hit once in a while. So you have to be patient yet consistent over a period; ride the downsides until your big break happens. Thus, the “long term” here is the patience you need to have. Caution- you should know when to stop and don’t be greedy. For equities too, there is a stop loss order where you can tell your broker to sell your shares when the prices falls to a particular level. Do not go borrowing to bet. That’s a big NO! But in some equity markets you can actually borrow through what is termed as short selling.

Thirdly, both are information sensitive- betting odds are shaped by history and information about who and who are going against each other. What is the likelihood of Team A winning against Team B, what is the current form, are there some injury concerns for any team, who is their coach, what is the head to head between both coaches and who’s playing home or away and the likes. Equity prices are also hugely influenced by information available on the market. Is there a good corporate governance structure, is there an upcoming merger or acquisition, is
there a potential dividend declaration etc. This is largely determined by how efficient the market is.

Finally the most important point…
EXPERTS? Betting experts- Come on! Nothing like that, just predictions based on instincts and a few historic happenings, that’s it, nothing more. So why pay for betting odds?

EXPERT Equity analysts? Fundamental or technical analysis: Paying attention to quantitative data to price a security when the qualitative evidence is also very important . Reason every analyst has a different valuation and expectation of the same stock! One says sell, another says hold, yet another says buy more. Same for bet- one says Team A is going to Win, another says Team B, eventually, the match ends in a draw and you are left seething through your teeth.

In summary, even though they are different, there are some similar characteristics as seen.
PLEASE BET / INVEST WISELY.

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What are the financial implications of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso’s withdrawal from ECOWAS?

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The Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger on Wednesday formally withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) regional bloc.

The military-led governments in the three West African nations decided to withdraw from the bloc, and formed their own security alliance, the Alliance of Sahel States, in September 2023.

According to a statement by ECOWAS, the withdrawal “has become effective today” but it has kept the “doors open.”

We access the implications this has on their economic activities in the post below;

 

Economic Integration and Trade:
  • Disruption of Free Trade: ECOWAS facilitates the free movement of goods and services among its members. The withdrawal of these countries means they might no longer benefit from the free trade agreements, potentially leading to tariffs on goods crossing borders, which could increase costs and reduce trade volumes.
  • Loss of Market Access: These countries will lose access to the broader ECOWAS market, which might restrict their economic activities, particularly for landlocked nations like Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, who depend on their neighbors for trade routes.
  • Impact on WAEMU: While leaving ECOWAS does not necessarily mean leaving the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), there’s a risk if they consider exiting this union as well. The economic fallout would be much greater, potentially leading to defaults on commercial debt issued in the WAEMU market. However, the likelihood of this is considered low by analysts.
Investment and Economic Stability:
  • Reduced Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Membership in ECOWAS can be an assurance for investors regarding political stability and economic integration. Withdrawal might deter investors, especially given the political uncertainty following coups in these countries.
  • Financial Isolation: There’s a risk of exclusion from critical financial regulatory frameworks, impacting investment inflows, economic stability, and long-term development prospects. Being on the FATF grey list, their financial systems could face further scrutiny or restrictions.
Sanctions and Economic Sanctions:
  • ECOWAS Sanctions: The countries had already experienced harsh economic and financial sanctions from ECOWAS due to coups, which included banking restrictions and trade embargoes. While leaving ECOWAS might remove these sanctions directly, the underlying political instability might continue to affect their economies.
  • Potential for New Sanctions: If these nations pursue policies contrary to regional or international norms, they might face new forms of sanctions, either from ECOWAS or other international bodies, further straining their economies.
Humanitarian and Development Aid:
  • Aid Flows: Withdrawal might affect the flow of regional aid for development projects, exacerbating poverty and humanitarian issues. ECOWAS has various programs aimed at economic and social development, and the absence from these could have long-term negative effects on the populace.
Security and Economic Consequences:
  • Security Costs: The security situation in these countries has been a significant concern, with terrorism and insurgency affecting economic activities. Without ECOWAS’s coordinated security efforts, these nations might need to invest more in security, diverting funds from economic development.
  • Migration and Labor: The free movement of people within ECOWAS has economic benefits through labor mobility. Restrictions on this could affect industries in these countries that rely on migrant labor, potentially leading to labor shortages or increased costs.
Long-term Implications:
  • Economic Independence or Isolation: While these countries aim for greater sovereignty, they might find themselves economically isolated without the regional support structure of ECOWAS. This could lead to increased economic challenges, particularly if they cannot secure alternative alliances or economic frameworks.
  • Alliance of Sahel States (AES): The formation of AES might provide some counterbalance, but its effectiveness in replacing ECOWAS’s economic benefits remains uncertain, especially given the nascent stage of this alliance.
In summary, while the immediate effect might be a relief from ECOWAS sanctions, the long-term financial implications include potential economic isolation, reduced market access, lower investment, and challenges in security and humanitarian aid, all of which could hinder economic growth and stability in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

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BoG Suspends CBG Forex License Over Breaches

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The Bank of Ghana (BoG) has suspended the foreign exchange trading license of Consolidated Bank Ghana (CBG) for one month, effective from November 26, 2024. This action was taken due to multiple breaches of foreign exchange market regulations, including violations of guidelines for inward remittance services and anti-money laundering directives aimed at combating the financing of terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

The license will be reinstated once BoG is satisfied that CBG has implemented effective controls to ensure strict adherence to these regulations. This move underscores BoG’s commitment to enforcing compliance with financial regulations in Ghana’s forex market.

By this statement, the Bank of Ghana cautions foreign exchange market players to adhere strictly to the applicable forex market regulations and guidelines.

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MONEY; Do You Actually Know What It Is?

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Good morning my awesome readers.
Today on kobbysmyles.com, we bring you something different, well not so different as it’s about
money.

Yes money.

Do you know what it is?
I bet you do, well I do too.
It makes the world goes round, well, I got to turn around so I lay my hands on some. Now let me share this old wisdom with you as we begin a new week. Money is not what you think it is, It is not by chance that Saints call it Sin as we see the crimes committed just to have a few on you. It makes your eyes lit up like wildfire. We all want to make money, but in getting money or giving advice about money to people, just know this:

“Don’t give unsolicited investment advice to people”.
“Don’t take it upon yourself to invest people’s money”
The reason being that, you don’t know how the money will work upon that person you thought
of helping.

I started watching Fargo yesterday and here is what I learnt:
In Fargo Season 4, there is an iconic scene that has taught me a few things I would love to share. A beggar asks for money from Loy who is a mafia leader. Loy then takes out wad of cash from his pocket and tells his men to notice the way the eyes of the beggar light up upon seeing the money.

Loy then tells his men that the beggar is already dreaming of his great life which he can get by
the money that is not his yet. This is where it gets interesting, Loy puts the money back in his pocket and the beggar became furious for a moment that the money has disappeared and sadly walks away. This time he was
sadder than before asking Loy for the money. Imagine the effect Loy’s money which wasn’t his,
had on him.

Money, even if its not yours has that effect. Even if its not yours can make you happy or sad just
by the sight of it and thinking all that you can do with it. Money rules the world, but in getting
money, don’t lose yourself. Just don’t make it your God.

Do have a great week.

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